With names like Chris Sale and Jose Quintana floating around, what makes Oakland’s struggling Sonny Gray so attractive?
On paper, Gray comes off as very dull this year. A 5 win and 9 loss record, along with a 5.43 ERA, is less than appealing in a modern MLB where good pitching dominates. So why should Dave Dombrowski and the Sox pull the trigger on Sonny Gray?
It’s simple. The risk is not as big as the reward could be.
Now I am no MLB general manager, nor am I Buster Olney, but here’s my thinking. 2015 brought the following stats for Gray. 14 wins and 7 losses. An ERA of 2.73. 169 K’s. A WHIP (walks and hits per inning for you non-statistic people) of 1.082. Those numbers were good enough to make him an all-star and finish him 3rd in a tight Cy Young race (one spot ahead of Chris Sale may I add). The kid can pitch. According to Brooks Baseball, a site that deals with the science of pitching, Gray brings a fourseam fastball at 94 MPH, a sinker at 94 MPH, a curve at 82 MPH, a slider at 86 MPH, a fast changeup at 89 MPH, and the rare cutter at 91 MPH. This variety of pitches is of great value to any pitching staff and is a big plus for Gray.
Now that it is established that Gray can pitch effectively in the big league, what makes him right for Boston? The Red Sox rotation is struggling badly, and finding a solid fifth starter has been a roller-coaster ride. Buchholz simply cannot do it, Henry Owens and Brian Johnson haven’t worked out, and Sean O’Sullivan was a disaster waiting to happen. Now I do like Eduardo Rodriguez but Gray brings more experience than Rodriguez, who has been good of late, but up and down mostly. Gray is 26 years old; a prime age for MLB pitchers. His contract is also not huge, like those of comparable pitchers. $528k is not too big a pill to swallow on the payroll. The one downside is his contract expires at the end of the season, but this can be spun positively as his struggles also lower negotiation prices if a team does indeed want to extend him.
Now in a trade market that costs you an arm and leg for a backup, the Red Sox have the pieces to do whatever they want. However with big names like Benintendi and Moncada soon to see stardom, the Sox and their fan base doesn’t want to bite the bullet. This also makes Gray appealing. His performance on the bump, regardless of his prior success, has brought his price way down. Oakland continues to struggle and is most likely trying to get what they can out of Gray at the deadline. Boston could give up a middle-tier prospect and maybe even MLB talent like Blake Swihart and land Gray with ease in my opinion. This also helps you avoid the ridiculous asking price for Sale or Quintana.
A final plus for the Sox is Gray’s relationship with David Price. Now I understand that the MLB is a business and deals with tough love often, but Price’s confidence is low and is locked in for the foreseeable future in Boston. Both Price and Gray attended and pitched at Vanderbilt and have had a publicly close relationship since. This chemistry could bode well for both players. Gray escapes the poor atmosphere in Oakland only to be reunited with Price and a competitive team. Price suddenly has a pal to got to battle with and could be rejuvenated in his performances on the mound. Chemistry is vital in professional clubhouses and that cannot be denied. This “bromance” could be just what both Price and Gray need to kick it into gear.
Assuming 2016 is just a blip for Sonny Gray, this trade could be what the Red Sox rotation needs. A young controllable pitcher, who is coming off of a season where he established that he had top of the rotation stuff. Best case scenario, Gray flourishes, returns to form, and pitches well enough to solidify himself in the Red Sox rotation. Worst case scenario (it isn’t that bad actually), the Sox lose a middle level prospect and a backup, that was of no significance, in a failed experiment to get a good MLB pitcher back from a funk. And just for kicks, for everyone saying Gray is just a mediocre pitcher who had a good year, take a peek at Curt Schilling’s early part of his career, I think you’ll see some scary similarities.
With the deadline rapidly approaching and the Sox rapidly slipping in the standings, who knows what Dealin’ Dave will have up his sleeve. We can only hope the Sox go for the “Moneyball” and hopefully Sonny days will lie ahead.
Take Zone Sports 