So last night the Baseball Writers Association of America announced the finalists for their awards; Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP. There weren’t any major surprises, but there will definitely be some disputes over who actually takes home the hardware, especially in the MVP races. For those who have been with me since Keegansports (RIP) I made some MLB award predictions back on February 11th (check them out here), before pitchers and catchers even reported. Most were horrible because I’m pretty stupid and I pretty much guessed, but regardless, let’s see how my picks stack up against this year’s finalists.
AL Rookie of the Year:
My pick: Byron Buxton, Twins
Finalists:
Tyler Naquin, Indians
Gary Sanchez, Yankees
Michael Fulmer, Tigers
So I’d seen some glimpses of Buxton’s speed and glove late in 2015 and I thought it would translate well to his first full season. I also knew that the Twins would be trash this year and even if Buxton didn’t start the year with the club, he’d be up real soon. I was right to a point, as Buxton played 92 games for the Twins this year, but he never really got off the ground, finishing the year with a .225 batting average, 38 RBI, and 10 steals, and he struck out in over 35% of his plate appearances. Woops.
As for the actual winner, it’s hard to go against Gary Sanchez here. Yeah he only played 53 games for the big league club in 2016 (compared to 116 for Naquin and 26 starts for Fulmer) but Sanchez was just impossible to get out in the 2nd half of the year. If you watched him play, which we in Boston got to do plenty of, you know that even when he wasn’t going yard (which he did 20 times in those 53 games) he was making an impact. He gave Brian McCann some much needed relief behind the plate, and he also finished with a .299 batting average. All 3 are deserving, but I think Sanchez takes this one.
NL Rookie of the Year:
My pick: Steven Matz, Mets
Finalists:
Kenta Maeda, Dodgers
Trea Turner, Nationals
Corey Seager, Dodgers
This pick was really up and down for me this year. Matz got shelled in his first start of the year, then won his next 7 starts and took home NL Rookie of the Month honors in May, where he went 4-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 5 starts. He struggled mightily for the next 2 months, going 1-6 in June and July before it was announced he had been pitching with a bone spur in his elbow. He put off surgery for a while, but was placed on the DL in August and had surgery to remove the spur, ending his season.
As great as Maeda was this year for LA, I think this is a 2 horse race between Turner and Seager. These two were a couple of the most exciting players in baseball this year, both incredibly athletic and very talented. Seager will surely benefit from the fact that he was an Opening Day starter while Turner was called up on July 26th and only after a position switch (from shortstop to center field), but both have phenomenal numbers. In the end, I’m taking Seager because he had more exposure and arguably a better season numbers-wise.
AL Manager of the Year:
My pick: AJ Hinch, Astros
Finalists:
Jeff Banister, Rangers
Terry Francona, Indians
Buck Showalter, Orioles
My pick of Hinch was mainly due to the success I envisioned in 2016 for Houston, which never really panned out. The Astros did turn things around a bit to finish 3rd in the AL West, 6 games above .500 and 11 games back of Texas, but a 3rd place finish rarely gets you Manager of the Year consideration (unless you’re Buck Showalter, apparently).
All are definitely worthy here, but I’m going with Francona. Partially because of the postseason success, but primarily because he’s the best of the 3 at working with what he’s got. He did it in Boston, and he’s been doing it in Cleveland, too. Banister inherited a very talented Rangers team, got more additions at the deadline, and some could say they underachieved. But Francona took a team with great pitching and decent offense and made them pennant winners. And it’d actually be a shame for Showalter to be pardoned after neglecting to use All-World closer Zach Britton in the Wild Card game.
NL Manager of the Year:
My pick: Terry Collins, Mets
Finalists:
Dusty Baker, Nationals
Joe Maddon, Cubs
Dave Roberts, Dodgers
Again, this pick was based off a team having success that it didn’t necessarily have. I do think Terry Collins deserves a little more credit than he’s gotten for navigating the insane amount of injuries this Mets team endured, primarily to its pitching staff but really all over the roster, and still coming within a few outs of the NLDS. It took a great finish to the season to even get there, and he deserves a good deal of the credit.
I don’t think there’s any doubting that Joe Maddon wins this one. World Series victory aside, because postseason doesn’t factor into these awards, writers LOVE Joe Maddon. Maybe it’s the quirkiness or something, I don’t know, but everyone in the media loves this guy. If I had a vote I’d probably go Dave Roberts honestly, partially because I’ll always love him after that stolen base but also because I think he did a good job this year with a young and sometimes injury-plagued Dodgers team. He won’t win, but one could argue he should.
AL Cy Young:
My pick: Sonny Gray, Athletics
Finalists:
Rick Porcello, Red Sox
Corey Kluber, Indians
Justin Verlander, Tigers
Wow, so this was probably my worst pick. Coming off a 3rd place finish in 2015 Cy Young Voting, Gray was poised for a real breakout year at age 25. Instead, he finished 5-11 with a 5.69 ERA and made multiple trips to the disabled list, all of which lowering his trade value for when Oakland inevitably dumps him for a bunch of prospects.
If this award was voted on after the playoffs, I think there’s no question it would be Klubers, as he was a vital factor in the Indians being a few innings away from being World Champs. But this is a regular season award, and it’s hard to say anyone had a better regular season than Pretty Ricky. Yes win total is kind of an outdated stat and he definitely benefitted from some great run support, but it’s hard to argue with 22-4, especially when combined with a 3.15 ERA. Kluber and Verlander may top him in strikeouts, ERA, etc but if we’re talking about the most important pitcher to his team, which is how I like to interpret the Cy Young Award, I’m leaning towards Porcello.
NL Cy Young:
My pick: Gerrit Cole
Finalists:
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs
Jon Lester, Cubs
Max Scherzer, Nationals
Another bad one. Cole was coming off a 4th place Cy Young finish with a 19-win, 202 strikeout campaign in 2015 and looked ready to lead Pittsburgh to the playoffs in ’16. Instead, he made just 21 starts due to injury and went 7-10 with a 3.88 ERA and posted career-worst numbers in WHIP, SO/9, and K/BB ratio. I sure know my pitching, huh?
Instead, the writers will choose between the Nats’ Max Scherzer and a pair of Cubs, Hendricks and Lester. All three had phenomenal years and finished in the top 3 in NL ERA (Hendricks, Lester, Scherzer), but I’ve gotta give the nod to Kyle Hendricks. Maybe it’s because he started the year as Chicago’s 5th starter and ended up leading the majors in ERA, but I just love the story and the season from this kid. You could defend voting for all 3, but if I had a vote it’d go to Hendricks.
AL MVP:
My pick: Mookie Betts, Red Sox
Finalists:
Mookie Betts, Red Sox
Mike Trout, Angels
Jose Altuve, Astros
MOOKIE! Making me look like a damn genius! Even at the All-Star break he was nowhere near the favorite for AL MVP, but he’s gotta be up there now.
But Sean, Altuve won the batting title! And you’ve said a bunch of times that Trout is the LeBron of baseball; that we get so accustomed to his greatness that we don’t even notice it anymore, but he’s obviously the best player on the planet. How can you be that biased to vote Mookie? Well, made up person who likes to criticize me, you’re right. Altuve did win the batting title, and I do think Trout is the best baseball player on the planet right now. But the MVP award is always up for interpretation, and I see it as whoever’s absence from their team would hinder them the most. Mookie is immensely valuable to the Sox, more so than the others, and fully deserves this win. Plus, honestly, I just wanna be right on one of these picks.
NL MVP:
My pick: Paul Goldschmidt
Finalists:
Kris Bryant, Cubs
Daniel Murphy, Nationals
Corey Seager, Dodgers
Goldy was making me look real dumb early on, but he ended up turning it around and salvaging a decent season. He finished up batting .297 with 24 homers and 95 RBI; solid, but not MVP numbers.
Let’s start with this: it won’t be Seager. The fact that he’s nominated in his rookie season is incredible, and he’ll definitely win the ROY, but that’s as far as I’ll go. Murphy was the most consistent hitter in the NL this year, but it’s hard to argue that he was more valuable that Kris Bryant. As much talent as the Cubs have, there would be a gaping hole at the hot corner without Bryant. A little bias is coming in here as well, as Bryant is probably my favorite non-Red Sox player in the league due to both his play and his phenomenal attitude, but who cares; you don’t think the BBWAA voters have bias, too?
So there we have it, your 2016 MLB awards winners. Crazy to think it was 9 months ago when I made those predictions. The actual winners (which will probably differ greatly from my predictions) will be announced in a series of 1-hour specials next week, starting on Monday with the ROY winners, followed by managers on Tuesday, Cy Young on Wednesday, and finally the MVPs on Thursday.